Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Is this a Bull Trap

I met with an estate agent today to look at a few properties. He was very quick to tell me about the rise in UK property prices for the past four months (check Chart if you don't believe him....)

Rather than rehash the same old stuff this article explores if this is a bear trap and also considers the inflation debate. The rise may be a bit of both.

I would just like to explore the dream world that is the Irish property market. The more mature UK market tanked 20% in 17 months to €163,000 (£147,746) before starting to climb. This is a more densely populated country with a real shortage of quality housing and strict but unambiguous, compared to Ireland planning laws.

Take the average Irish House price, it climbs to €311,000 and over the past 26 months has drifted slowly down 20% still 50% higher than UK property prices. Last November in our webpage we put a case that €123,375 was fair value.

Fair play to the Irish Government they have created the “soft landing” they predicted in the property market. With all their intervention and now with the monster that is NAMA it looks like it is going to be the long slow grind lower. But we will get there.

One is just being like a protective parent pointing out the benefits of Government butting out and allowing a natural correction. In the end of the day “the people want leadership” and politicians love doing stuff, anything that increases their perceived importance. Meanwhile poor old moaning Paddy will have to experience being raped twice along the way (that is once by buying an overpriced property and continuing to pay for it and then by bailing out the few that are creating and working the system).

I think I will stay renting for a while.

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